Over the past few months, Paul Jewell has proven himself to be a manager that doesn't like to change the team to keep it fresh over the course of a season. He prefers to play a settled line up week in-week out - and while this is a sentiment that many fans seem to agree with - I think this is the wrong way to manage a squad over a long and arduous season. Gone are the days of 'pick your best XI', 'you can't change a winning team' etc. when you see that footballers now cover twice the distance they did in the 80's and early 90's and at a much higher intensity.
The 2011/12 season at Ipswich Town has been one of runs of form - 3 defeats on the spin, one loss in 8, 7 defeats on the bounce, back to back wins, 2 points out of 18 and more recently 24 points in our last 12. This shows a huge lack of consistency and also in my mind that we are a confidence team….capable of Championship winning form over a sustained period, but also of relegation form with the same set of players.
I personally think one of the main reasons for the change of fortune in our runs can be something as simple as the fact that the players are tired. In the Premiership the top teams rotate heavily to help them through a 38 game season, but yet this habit does not seem to have found it's way down to the Championship where 46 games are played in the same time period with the same international breaks.
To veer away from Ipswich for a bit, Spurs have had their title challenge effectively ended in recent weeks, the media can't seem to fathom why, but over the Christmas period I was speaking to a colleague who predicted this, in the 4 game period over Christmas, Redknapp did not change the team - and the players looked shattered. Now in order for them to play their high intensity game they are not fit enough to do it - once a player is gone, it takes almost a 2 week window for them to regain full fitness - if they are managed properly over busy periods this can be avoided.
I think Ipswich are a similar team to Tottenham, when we have been at our best in both good runs in the season, it has been when playing the game at a high intensity and tempo and overpowering opposition. Last nights game clearly showed this, in the first half with a slow tempo we were poor. We don't have the patience and technique to keep the ball for long periods of time, Middlesborough were happy to knock it around and wait for an opportunity to present itself. We are the opposite and play a very 'English' game - get the ball forward quickly, run with pace at defenders and try and pcik up second balls in dangerous areas and attack with intensity to make something happen or win a set piece.
This high intensity game has been very succesful, but isn't sustainable if we use the same players week in, week out. In the month of March we have now had 7 games in 24 days. Therefore, with the 4231 formation we are playing, there are 4 attacking spots available for each game and by definition 28 for the games in March - Murphy, Martin, Chopra and Emmanuel-Thomas have occupied 27 of these - with the only change being Jason Scotland in for Lee Martin at Hull.
In the last 3 games, at around the hour mark, Chopra, Martin and Emmanuel-Thomas have tired badly. This was particularly evident last night when at one point Nicky Bailey ran past Chopra like Rio Ferdinand gliding past Micky Quinn!
Lee Martin has arguably been our most important player in the recent good run, and it is hard to make a case for dropping him, but Jewell must realise that we are flogging our players and without sufficient recovery time between matches they will not recover - I'd be surprised if any of that front 4 fire on all cylinders between now and the end of the season.
In March, our two attacking midfield players not currently starting, Josh Carson and Ryan Stevenson, have played approximately 90 minutes football between them. Taking away from the fact it is good to see an Academy graduate like Carson play more, I struggle to see that the team would have been sufficiently weakened by given Carson and Stevenson 3 starts in this period to allow the key players to rest. It could have worked along that way that either Carson or Stevenson started - and one of the first choice 4 was given a rest to recover. Murphy clearly appreciated the total rest he was given for the Blackpool game as his best form of the season followed this.
Squad rotation is seen as a dirty word in football but with the intensity the game is played at these days it is vital that the team is kept fresh. A huge squad isn't required to do this, a defence shouldn't rotate as these players cover less ground and have less need to have explosive pace, and greater natural rest periods during the game. We have looked more defensively solid when relationships have been able to be built and rotating at the back four is a recipe for disaster.
Using last nights game as an example, a key player who looked the freshest at the 90 minute mark was Grant Leadbitter, he had an enforced rest on Saturday, but would he have been able to make the run to score his goal yesterday with 90 minutes on Saturday under his belt? We'll obviously never know, but he looked good for a rest, whereas Lee Bowyer looked leggy from around 30 minutes in having played 3 games in 6 days.
In order to rotate a squad, you need around 10 midfield and attacking players, with this it allows you to make 2 or 3 changes a game to ensure that everyone is kept fresh, and it doesn't end up like earlier in the season where both Chopra and Scotland were tired and Ellington and Emmanuel-Thomas came out of the lurch with no match sharpness and looked poor and were subsequently dropped - this isn't rotation, it is dropping/resting players. Jewell's use (or lack) of substitutions also doesn't help the matter, in the last 2 home games both Emmanuel-Thomas and Chopra have looked knackered for the last 15 minutes but been left on when there has been a spare sub to use and allow them a break to begin recovery for next game.
I think we have the 10 midfield and attacking players in: Bowyer, Drury, Leadbitter, Hyam, Murphy, Martin, Emmanuel-Thomas, Carson, Chopra and Stevenson (Scotland deliberately excluded due to contract restrictions). And with these players, if the squad is managed properly, all 10 will be able to stay match fit without being burned out by playing 8 games in a month.
Unfortunately for this season, I think the squad rotation ship has sailed, and unless key players can be given a 10-14 day rest they will not be able to hit the heights of their best performance. Hopefully Paul Jewell spends time talking to Sir Alex Ferguson this summer, who is the master of rotation - he has openly admitted that he knows the XI he will be playing 4-5 games in advance in order to ensure everyone is fit to play and peaking. They do have a bigger squad than us, but it could be argued that he is top of the league with a relatively poor squad when compared to their rivals. If Jewell can embrace rotation and do it effectively, I think it will give us a huge advantage next season.
Wednesday 28 March 2012
Realistically, how many players should ITFC sign in the summer?
It seems every time ITFC lose a game, there are dozens of threads on the message board and tweets stating that we need to sign 7 players this summer, usually followed by something like this - 'GK, CBx2, RB, CM, ST'. After the defeat on Saturday I got fairly sick of reading these as they do not seem to take into account what we currently have in our squad, who can leave and who we are stuck with....and in turn how this affects our wage bill.
It is always seen as ideal to have '2 players for each position' but realistically, a Championship club cannot carry senior players, so we cannot have 22 senior players, you just have to hope that serious injuries aren't picked up and if they are they need to be replaced by loanees.
Here is my analysis of what the squad needs over the summer break, to be able to compete with the play off chasers in this division - while hoping to follow the more prudent financial plans that Simon Clegg has spoken about at length (ad nauseum?!)
Goalkeepers
At the end of this season, we will be left with only one contracted goalkeeper, Arran Lee-Barrett. In my eyes ALB is the perfect number 2 for this league, not good enough to hold down a first team spot, but does well enough when asked to cover. He also doesn't seem the sort to aggravate for a starting position, as to the outside he has been treated fairly shabbily in places but still seems to love the club (Judging by tweets, etc.)
Cody Cropper seems fairly highly rated so I would offer him another contract with a view to him spending time on loan next year, and depending on how he did having him as the effective number 2, i.e. if Number 1 get's injured for more than a couple of weeks he could come back in with ALB staying on bench - similar to how Stockdale was for Fulham.
This leads to the obvious conclusion that we need a new goalkeeper, another loanee will not suffice, we need to sign a relatively experienced goalkeeper (around 27 years old) who can be our number 1 for the next 5 years. Continuity is a hugely important part of any defence and we need to look for a signing similar to when Kelvin Davis was signed. I don't have the answer to who this could be but I'd suggest someone who has played at least 100 games at first team level.
Defence
This is an area that has been highly criticised, and rightly so in a lot of respects. However I think that for large periods of the season it was given so little protection that it really was lambs to the slaughter, this was particularly evident in the period that Jimmy Bullard was played a lone holding midfielder.
Carlos Edwards has done an adequate job at RB over the season, defensively he is still suspect sometimes but adds a lot going forward. I think he can still do a job next season, but only at a time when we are expected to win a game and aren't expected to be under pressure where his concentration and positioning lets him down. I would be looking to sign a more defensive Right Back, and one that can cover centre half as well. This would be a player from Leagues 1 or 2 who is looking to step up to the Championship.
At centre back, I think Tommy Smith and Damien Delaney are both decent defenders at this level. However, they are both left sided centre backs and this hugely effects the defensive balance of the team. I think we need to sign an experienced right sided centre back to act as a leader defensively to follow in footsteps of Tony Mowbray, Jason De Vos and Gareth McAuley. I have been hugely impressed with James Chester at Hull but think he may be out of our price range - he would be my number one target, while not a leader in style of 3 mentioned above, he is a very good defender and would be good paired with Smith or Delaney, who both win their share of headers, with the other as back up. The only potential spanner in the works is that I think it may be difficult to pin Smith down to a new contract without guarantee of first team football and I think Delaney slightly edges him at the moment....but sure Smith is the kind of character to relish a battle to win his place.
Aaron Cresswell has had a promising first season at Left Back, but error's have crept into his game in recent weeks. I think there are a number of factors for this: a long season in more physically demanding league, no competition for a place and hopefully not but could be fact that he has begun to be found out as weak in a one on one defensive situation (doesn't block the cross enough in my opinion). I think we'll have to rely on Joe Whight as back up and hope he pushes on next year. If this doesn't happen then Whight will need to spend time on loan somewhere with a Premiership loanee bought in as competition for Cresswell - Ben Mee has done well at Burnley and may be worth a bid at some point.
Midfield
In central midfield we need to have 4 players to cover here. I'd argue that we currently have that, so long as Leadbitter can be persuaded to sign for another year. This would leave Leadbitter, Drury and Hyam who have been impressive lately and the enigma that is Jimmy Bullard. I don't see how Bullard will fit into this new team and higher tempo game we are now playing, but I don't see how we will be able to get him off the wage bill. I think Bowyer has played well in recent weeks, but feel that at 35 unless he was to be on very poor wages next year (around £3k a week) then he isn't worth keeping as the central midfield will already account for a large chunk of the wage budget. It is vitally important that we get Leadbitter to sign and keep him playing how he is at the moment, to buy a 26 year old player with his experience and quality will be a 7 figure transfer fee and a substantial weekly wage. If Bullard is going to be as useful next season as he has been this year then we will need to get in a central midfield loanee if we are unable to get Bowyer to take a substantial wage cut.
In the system we have been playing recently we have used 3 attacking midfielders, usually Jay Emmanuel-Thomas, Daryl Murphy and Lee Martin. I think that Josh Carson could deputise for any of these and haven't seen enough of Stevenson yet to know whether he can, although he does strike me as an attacking midfielder rather than a lone striker in the system we play. I think it is important that we try to sign Daryl Murphy, he has been a key player in the recent good run and allows flexibility to move between 451 and 442. I think it would be useful to try and sign another winger who can play on either side so on days where things aren't working out for JET or Murphy we have someone with pace who can get behind the full back. Andros Townsend seems to flutter from one club to another and may be worth trying to tie down on a permanent deal.
Strikers
In Michael Chopra we have a very good striker at this level, I think Jason Scotland does a very good job too and him and Chopra are a very good substitution for each other as ask very different questions of a defenders while being almost equally effective at helping the team. I would therefore try and tie Scotland down on a reduced contract for another year. Ellington has had a poor first season and unfortunately I think we will have to retain him as 3rd choice striker, with competition from Murray - realistically though if Scotland were to leave neither of those 2 would be able to step up to the required level. This would mean we need to sign a striker and again we need to look to someone in the Championship or a young striker from League 1. After watching Peterborough I think Tyrone Barnett could have been that player but we've missed the boat here so would look at someone like Marcus Tudgay whose hold up play has always impressed me, or an out and out target man like Chris Iwelumo or even Odejayi at Colchester as an option to use from the bench to act as a battering ram style player.
So I think for the squad next year, and trying to use realistic budgeting, we need it to look something like:
GK: New first choice, ALB, Cropper
RB: Edwards/New RB who can also cover CB
LB: Cresswell, Whight/loanee
CB: New right sided CB with cover from RB above and Smith/Delaney
CM: Leadbitter, Drury, Bullard, Hyam and Bowyer if on very low wages or a young loanee
Wingers: JE-T, Murphy, Carson, New signing who can play on both sides.
AM: Martin, Stevenson
ST: Chopra, Scotland/New signing, Ellington
This means we need to sign a new first choice goalkeeper, right sided centre back and Daryl Murphy. We also need to sign 2 effective squad players, one who can cover right back/centre back and a winger.
This is assuming that Leadbitter and Scotland sign new contracts, however if not they will also need replacing and we risk going down the path of having a squad that struggles to 'gel' again and waste a few months of the season - 5 senior players is more than enough for one summer.
So in summary - "We need to sign 5 players - GK, RB/CB, CB, Winger and Daryl Murphy"!!
It is always seen as ideal to have '2 players for each position' but realistically, a Championship club cannot carry senior players, so we cannot have 22 senior players, you just have to hope that serious injuries aren't picked up and if they are they need to be replaced by loanees.
Here is my analysis of what the squad needs over the summer break, to be able to compete with the play off chasers in this division - while hoping to follow the more prudent financial plans that Simon Clegg has spoken about at length (ad nauseum?!)
Goalkeepers
At the end of this season, we will be left with only one contracted goalkeeper, Arran Lee-Barrett. In my eyes ALB is the perfect number 2 for this league, not good enough to hold down a first team spot, but does well enough when asked to cover. He also doesn't seem the sort to aggravate for a starting position, as to the outside he has been treated fairly shabbily in places but still seems to love the club (Judging by tweets, etc.)
Cody Cropper seems fairly highly rated so I would offer him another contract with a view to him spending time on loan next year, and depending on how he did having him as the effective number 2, i.e. if Number 1 get's injured for more than a couple of weeks he could come back in with ALB staying on bench - similar to how Stockdale was for Fulham.
This leads to the obvious conclusion that we need a new goalkeeper, another loanee will not suffice, we need to sign a relatively experienced goalkeeper (around 27 years old) who can be our number 1 for the next 5 years. Continuity is a hugely important part of any defence and we need to look for a signing similar to when Kelvin Davis was signed. I don't have the answer to who this could be but I'd suggest someone who has played at least 100 games at first team level.
Defence
This is an area that has been highly criticised, and rightly so in a lot of respects. However I think that for large periods of the season it was given so little protection that it really was lambs to the slaughter, this was particularly evident in the period that Jimmy Bullard was played a lone holding midfielder.
Carlos Edwards has done an adequate job at RB over the season, defensively he is still suspect sometimes but adds a lot going forward. I think he can still do a job next season, but only at a time when we are expected to win a game and aren't expected to be under pressure where his concentration and positioning lets him down. I would be looking to sign a more defensive Right Back, and one that can cover centre half as well. This would be a player from Leagues 1 or 2 who is looking to step up to the Championship.
At centre back, I think Tommy Smith and Damien Delaney are both decent defenders at this level. However, they are both left sided centre backs and this hugely effects the defensive balance of the team. I think we need to sign an experienced right sided centre back to act as a leader defensively to follow in footsteps of Tony Mowbray, Jason De Vos and Gareth McAuley. I have been hugely impressed with James Chester at Hull but think he may be out of our price range - he would be my number one target, while not a leader in style of 3 mentioned above, he is a very good defender and would be good paired with Smith or Delaney, who both win their share of headers, with the other as back up. The only potential spanner in the works is that I think it may be difficult to pin Smith down to a new contract without guarantee of first team football and I think Delaney slightly edges him at the moment....but sure Smith is the kind of character to relish a battle to win his place.
Aaron Cresswell has had a promising first season at Left Back, but error's have crept into his game in recent weeks. I think there are a number of factors for this: a long season in more physically demanding league, no competition for a place and hopefully not but could be fact that he has begun to be found out as weak in a one on one defensive situation (doesn't block the cross enough in my opinion). I think we'll have to rely on Joe Whight as back up and hope he pushes on next year. If this doesn't happen then Whight will need to spend time on loan somewhere with a Premiership loanee bought in as competition for Cresswell - Ben Mee has done well at Burnley and may be worth a bid at some point.
Midfield
In central midfield we need to have 4 players to cover here. I'd argue that we currently have that, so long as Leadbitter can be persuaded to sign for another year. This would leave Leadbitter, Drury and Hyam who have been impressive lately and the enigma that is Jimmy Bullard. I don't see how Bullard will fit into this new team and higher tempo game we are now playing, but I don't see how we will be able to get him off the wage bill. I think Bowyer has played well in recent weeks, but feel that at 35 unless he was to be on very poor wages next year (around £3k a week) then he isn't worth keeping as the central midfield will already account for a large chunk of the wage budget. It is vitally important that we get Leadbitter to sign and keep him playing how he is at the moment, to buy a 26 year old player with his experience and quality will be a 7 figure transfer fee and a substantial weekly wage. If Bullard is going to be as useful next season as he has been this year then we will need to get in a central midfield loanee if we are unable to get Bowyer to take a substantial wage cut.
In the system we have been playing recently we have used 3 attacking midfielders, usually Jay Emmanuel-Thomas, Daryl Murphy and Lee Martin. I think that Josh Carson could deputise for any of these and haven't seen enough of Stevenson yet to know whether he can, although he does strike me as an attacking midfielder rather than a lone striker in the system we play. I think it is important that we try to sign Daryl Murphy, he has been a key player in the recent good run and allows flexibility to move between 451 and 442. I think it would be useful to try and sign another winger who can play on either side so on days where things aren't working out for JET or Murphy we have someone with pace who can get behind the full back. Andros Townsend seems to flutter from one club to another and may be worth trying to tie down on a permanent deal.
Strikers
In Michael Chopra we have a very good striker at this level, I think Jason Scotland does a very good job too and him and Chopra are a very good substitution for each other as ask very different questions of a defenders while being almost equally effective at helping the team. I would therefore try and tie Scotland down on a reduced contract for another year. Ellington has had a poor first season and unfortunately I think we will have to retain him as 3rd choice striker, with competition from Murray - realistically though if Scotland were to leave neither of those 2 would be able to step up to the required level. This would mean we need to sign a striker and again we need to look to someone in the Championship or a young striker from League 1. After watching Peterborough I think Tyrone Barnett could have been that player but we've missed the boat here so would look at someone like Marcus Tudgay whose hold up play has always impressed me, or an out and out target man like Chris Iwelumo or even Odejayi at Colchester as an option to use from the bench to act as a battering ram style player.
So I think for the squad next year, and trying to use realistic budgeting, we need it to look something like:
GK: New first choice, ALB, Cropper
RB: Edwards/New RB who can also cover CB
LB: Cresswell, Whight/loanee
CB: New right sided CB with cover from RB above and Smith/Delaney
CM: Leadbitter, Drury, Bullard, Hyam and Bowyer if on very low wages or a young loanee
Wingers: JE-T, Murphy, Carson, New signing who can play on both sides.
AM: Martin, Stevenson
ST: Chopra, Scotland/New signing, Ellington
This means we need to sign a new first choice goalkeeper, right sided centre back and Daryl Murphy. We also need to sign 2 effective squad players, one who can cover right back/centre back and a winger.
This is assuming that Leadbitter and Scotland sign new contracts, however if not they will also need replacing and we risk going down the path of having a squad that struggles to 'gel' again and waste a few months of the season - 5 senior players is more than enough for one summer.
So in summary - "We need to sign 5 players - GK, RB/CB, CB, Winger and Daryl Murphy"!!
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